The possible introduction of quotas on grain exports from Russia lowers wheat prices

2020-11-12 12:02:52
Machine translation
The possible introduction of quotas on grain exports from Russia lowers wheat prices

the Intention of the Russian government to enter the second half of the season, the quotas for grain exports force the importers to expedite the purchase, and farmers – to step up sales, which will soon lead to lower prices for Russian wheat, because the market is growing competition from the crop from Argentina (export forecast of 12.5 million tons) and Australia (19 million tons). During November-December, the Russian exporters need to ship at least 10 million tonnes of wheat to close their contracts, if the system of distribution of quotas will be as opaque as last year.

 

For the domestic needs and food security, the government of Russia plans to introduce a quota on the export of 15 million tonnes of grain in the period 15 February – 30 June 2021г.

 

According to the Ministry of agriculture of the Russian Federation, as 01.07.2020 stocks of grain in the previous season was 21.2 million tonnes, of which wheat, barley, rye and corn – 19.4 million t is Expected that grain production in the current season will amount to 127.5 million tons, including the indicated cultures 115,8 million tons and consumption was 68.8 million tons, including 33.9 million tons in the second half of 2020 2020/21 MG as of 8 November, the export of wheat, barley, rye and corn amounted to 20.2 million tons, and in the second half of the season can reach is 29.7 million tonnes For ensuring food security the Ministry of agriculture considers necessary to ensure the stocks of these cultures as 01.07.2021 on the level of 17.2 million tons, for which they export to 2020/21 MG should not exceed 49.5 million t is Projected that in the period 01.01.2021-14.02.2021 the export of these crops (including the markets of the EAEU) will be 4.8 million tons.

 

Recall, in the second half of 2019/20 Mr the Russian government imposed a quota on grain exports in the amount of 7 million tons.

 

Turkish grain Agency TMO yesterday at the tender acquired 550 thousand tons of Russian wheat protein 12.5% and shipment, 24 November – 18 December at an average price of 270 $/t CFR, which is $2/t higher than the price in October, however, much lower than the prices received sentences that were originally made 285-286 $/t CFR.

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