Possible frost damage to US crops supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining

According to the Commodity Weather Group, severe frosts of -21 ^° C in the United States between January 20 and 22 could have killed up to 15% of winter wheat crops not protected by snow cover in some areas of the Plains and Midwest.

Last week, amid frosts, wheat prices rose by 3.6–4.9%, but then fell again, losing 1–2.4% overall for the week. However, yesterday, news about poor crop conditions in the US, Russia, and Ukraine supported prices.

In Texas, 42% of the winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition, significantly higher than last year.

March wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 1.8% to $200.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.4% per week),
• by 1.4% to $206.1/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-2.6%),
• by 2% to $219.6/t - for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.1%).
• by 2.1% to €229/t or $239/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-1%).

In Ukraine, winter crops in almost all regions are suffering from a lack of moisture. The situation is currently being saved by fairly high temperatures, but the lack of snow is drying out the soil. Since the beginning of the active growing season, plants have lacked moisture and nutrients, and forecasts for the next 7–10 days do not promise significant precipitation.

Amid increasing sales from farmers, export demand prices for wheat in Ukraine's Black Sea ports remain stable:

• food wheat - 10400–10600 UAH/t or 218-223 $/t,
• fodder - UAH 10,000–10,200/t or $209–211/t.

In the Central Black Earth region and in the south of the Russian Federation, some winter wheat crops have not sprouted due to autumn droughts, but the warm winter has helped restore most of the crops. Currently, about two-thirds of the winter crop suffers from a lack of moisture, as precipitation levels remain below the average annual rate.

According to Rusagrotrans analysts, export prices for February deliveries of wheat with 12.5% protein increased last week:

• to Russian - up to $238/t FOB,
• French – by $6/t to $247/t,
• Romanian – by $9/t to $246/t,
• American - by $2/t to $238/t,
• Argentine - by $1/t to $229/t.

On January 28, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Jordan held a tender for the purchase of 120 thousand tons of wheat of any origin, where it purchased 60 thousand tons at a price of $265.25/ton from Buildcom with shipment from June 1-30, 2025. This indicates a sufficient supply of cheap wheat on the market, which reduces the likelihood of a significant increase in prices.