Interbank market: reason for optimism
on Wednesday, the hryvnia on the interbank market is not enough to strengthen, despite the support of certain factors. The decrease in balances on correspondent accounts of banks to 45.8 milliard and accumulated volume of mandatory sales of foreign revenue for January 16 and 17 create the preconditions for strengthening of the hryvnia, but that never happened.
At the beginning of the trading session on the background of a slight demand, the dollar fell from a declarative quotes of 27.58/of 27.65 to 27.40/27,52 11:00 hour. For an hour he fell to 27,40/27,49 UAH. NBU entered the market, watching as it finds a balance.
However, after 12 hours a few large buyers bought an excess of currency, demand outweighed over supply and the national currency began rapidly to depreciate. After lunch, the dollar was trading in the corridor 27,53-27,56/27,60-27,62 UAH. The trading ended at the level 27,56/net loss of 27.62 UAH/$.
What can you conclude?
Low trading volumes (only at $ 230.4 million $) subject to a two-day mandatory sales of foreign currency show a decline in receipts of foreign exchange, which is due to long festive holidays for exporters, the decline of foreign economic activity and the growth of negative trade balance. the
- Some large buyers were waiting for the lowest rate, and before it was quickly bought up the excess currency.
- the Growth of demand for currency absorbs arise from time to time, and does not allow the hryvnia to strengthen.
the national Bank will be forced to continue to enter the market with currency interventions, as export opportunities do not cover import needs, and the pace of import substitution is low. Therefore, the interbank market depends on the situational interest of large operators of the market, which will lead to further speculative attacks on the hryvnia.
the Major events on the interbank market on January 18:
- the end of the session, the dollar fell slightly from 27.58/of 27.65 to 27.56/UAH net loss of 27.62.
- of NBU on the market did not come out.
- Was 490 transactions totaling at $ 230.4 million $ at the weighted average exchange 27,4919 UAH/$.