The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised its canola harvest and export forecasts, but quotes barely reacted to this

After the Canadian Agricultural Statistics Office released data on the structure of acreage and the first yield forecast on June 30, the country's Department of Agriculture and Food (AAFC) updated its supply and demand balances on July 20, in which it increased production forecasts for major agricultural crops in the 2026/27 MY.

Thus, due to the increase in sowing areas, the forecast for canola production in the 2026/27 MY has been increased (compared to June estimates) from 19.2 to 21 million tons, the forecast for domestic processing has been increased from 13.2 to 13.75 million tons, exports have been increased by 0.5 to 8 million tons, and ending stocks have been increased from 1.31 to 2.07 million tons.

At the same time, for the 2025/26 season, the export forecast was increased by 0.1 to 8.5 million tons, while the forecast for processing at 12.3 million tons and ending stocks at 2.7 million tons was left unchanged.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures fell 0.9% yesterday to 803 CAD/t or $569/t (+3.7% for the week, +8.7% for the month) after rising 4.5% last week, amid profit-taking by traders and pressure from an improved balance sheet.

The report's data indicates that Canada's agricultural sector is entering a new season with good production performance, which will allow it to meet the domestic demand of processors (which is gradually increasing) and the needs of the global market.

At the same time, weather conditions in Canada are conducive to the formation of a good canola harvest in the new season.