Canada's Agriculture Ministry has increased its forecast for ending canola stocks by almost 500,000 tons

Agriculture and Food Canada (AAFC) has increased its forecast for ending canola stocks in the 2026/27 MY by 32% or 475 thousand tons from 1.504 to 1.979 million tons, compared to August estimates, and in the 2025/26 MY by 175 thousand tons to 1.9 million tons.

Rising inventories in one of the world's largest rapeseed exporters will put pressure on futures and spot rapeseed prices, and will also affect the rapeseed oil market, as an increase in the supply of cheap raw materials will reduce processors' costs and allow oil prices to drop.

Large rapeseed stocks will also contribute to increased processing volumes, which will increase the supply of rapeseed meal on the world market. This will also increase pressure on futures and spot prices for meal, and consequently, on feed crops.

Thus, an increase in Canadian canola stocks will negatively affect several markets at once: oilseeds, canola oil, and meal.

However, further price trends will depend on actual processing volumes, demand from importers, and the dynamics of inventory reduction in the 2026/27 MY.