The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and UZA expect a 10% decrease in the harvest in Ukraine in 2024/25 MR

The first forecast of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy in 2024 turned out to be quite pessimistic, although it corresponds to the recently made UZA forecast. The ministry expects that in 2024 the harvest in Ukraine will decrease by 10% compared to last year, from 82 to 74 million tons, of which 52.4 million tons will be grain crops and 21.7 million tons will be oil crops.

We will remind that at the beginning of 2023, the ministry predicted a 13% decrease in the harvest to 63.5 million tons, but favorable weather made it possible to obtain 82 million tons of grain, in particular, 60 million tons of grain and about 22 million tons of oil crops. Therefore, production forecasts are preliminary and will be adjusted throughout the year depending on the weather and other factors.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, in 2024 the production of agricultural crops will decrease compared to last year:

• wheat - from 22.2 to 19.2 million tons,
• barley - from 5.7 to 4.9 million tons,
• corn - from 30.5 to 26.7 million tons,
• sunflower - from 12.9 to 12.4 million tons,
• rapeseed - from 4.7 to 4.1 million tons,
• soybeans - will grow from 4.7 to 5.2 million tons.

At the same time, the sown area will decrease compared to 2023 by 395 thousand hectares to 10.6 million hectares, namely:

• winter wheat - from 0.3 to 4.3 million hectares,
• winter barley - from 0.15 to 0.47 million hectares,
• corn - by 62 thousand hectares to 3,9 million hectares,
• rapeseed - on 0.1 to 1.5 million hectares.

At the same time, the sowing area will increase

• spring wheat - by 0.2 thousand ha to 0.2 million ha,
• spring barley - from 0.06 to 0.94 million hectares,
• soybeans - by 400,000 hectares to 2.2 million hectares.

It is planned to sow 5.3 million hectares with sunflowers, the same as last year.

Experts of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) believe that due to the reduction of sowing areas due to unfavorable price conditions and the high cost of export logistics, the harvest of grain and oil crops in 2024 will decrease to 76.1 million tons, but the final figure will depend on the weather in spring and summer .

According to the UZA forecast in 2024/25 MR:

• the wheat harvest will reach 20 million tons (22 million tons in 2023), and exports will reach 13 million tons, if the initial stocks in the season amount to 2.4 million tons,
• barley harvest - 4.6 (5.8) million tons, export - 2 (2.5) million tons,
• corn harvest - 26.3 (29.6) million tons, export - 20.5 (26) million tons,
• sunflower harvest - 13.7 (14.2) million tons, export - 250 (400) thousand tons and processing 13.6 (13.5) million tons,
• rapeseed harvest - 4.2 (4.3) million tons, export - 3.6 million tons, as in 2023/24 MR,
• soybean harvest - 5.5 (4.9) million tons, export - 4 (3.3) million tons.

Corn production will decrease as a result of a sharp reduction in the area of sowing, as the fall in this crop causes significant losses to farmers. At the same time, soybean will be the only crop whose sowing area will increase due to the high profitability of cultivation in 2024.