The hryvnia exchange rate remains under pressure from political tensions and speculative demand

Last week, the hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank foreign exchange market of Ukraine stabilized after rapid growth, and the dollar rose by only 7 kopecks from 27.25/27.27 UAH/. to 27.32/27.34 UAH/..

The threat of a Russian military invasion of Ukraine is being questioned by more and more experts, so the markets will calm down. In addition, the parliament adopted the budget for next year, and oil prices began to decline on world markets, which will reduce the demand and cost of petroleum products.

Due to the increased sales of foreign currency by exporters, the National Bank reduced its own sales in order to contain speculative growth of the exchange rate. During November 29-December 3, he sold.154.5 million on the interbank market and even purchased. 5 million, although a week ago he was forced to sell a record. 630.1 million and did not buy foreign currency, and in the period of November 15-19, he sold. 108 million and purchased. 5 million. In total, in November, the National Bank sold 7 738.8 million and purchased.1,177. 8 million, and since the beginning of the year it has sold. 1.1 billion and bought викуп 3.61 billion, so the positive balance was. 2.5 billion.

Macroeconomic news will lead to the strengthening of the hryvnia – the implementation of the budget-2021 is going better than predicted. In January – November, the deficit of the general fund of the state budget amounted to UAH 57.4 billion, while the list for this period amounted to UAH 175.7 billion.

Actual government loans to the general fund of the state budget for January – November 2021 amounted to UAH 478.8 billion, or 78.2% of the plan. According to operational data, UAH 313.3 billion was attracted to the state budget through the placement of government bonds, including € 2.5 billion and € 583.7 million, which is equivalent to UAH 85.6 billion.

The Verkhovna Rada adopted the budget for 2022 with 268 votes in favor, the revenues of which will amount to UAH 1.322 trillion, which is UAH 54.73 billion higher than the version voted in the first reading. To finance the budget and refinance debts next year, the government plans to borrow UAH 571 billion. to pay UAH 393 billion on old debts in 2022, the government also plans to receive new loans.

Active sale of government bonds will help strengthen the hryvnia exchange rate. However, the main volumes of agricultural products will be exported in the new year, as farmers expect prices to rise, which may lead to the strengthening of the hryvnia in January –February, as it was last year.