The hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank market has increased slightly over the week, but analysts do not expect further growth yet

Against the backdrop of the corruption scandal in Ukraine last week, concerns about the stability of the government's work and possible changes in leadership increased, which led to an increase in the interbank rate, although the situation calmed down at the end of the week. President Zelensky's meeting with the Servant of the People faction, as well as the need for government officials to participate in rapid truce negotiations initiated by the US, suspended the development of the corruption scandal, although the NABU continues the investigation, so we expect new charges and hope that the Verkhovna Rada will be able to create a Unity Government and unite the country in such difficult times.

The hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank market increased by 0.3% to 42.27/42.27 UAH/$ during the week, although the NBU did not increase the volume of currency sales. The increase in the exchange rate will slightly activate the sale of currency by exporters and increase export deliveries. During November 17-21, the National Bank of Ukraine did not buy currency on the interbank market and sold $647.8 million, which is inferior to sales of the previous week - $700.6 million.

Since the beginning of the year, the NBU has sold $30.4818 billion on the interbank market and bought only $40.65 million. As of October 31, 2025, Ukraine's official reserve assets amounted to $49.5212 billion, which was 13% higher than at the beginning of the year due to the receipt of international aid, so it is now very important for Ukraine to cleanse itself of corrupt officials and maintain political stability in order to continue receiving assistance from partners.

Analysts attribute the increase in the exchange rate to additional demand from the population for currency when purchasing goods with cards online during the sales period, which will continue this week until "Black Friday".

According to Bloomberg, the IMF is increasing pressure on the National Bank of Ukraine, demanding a controlled devaluation of the hryvnia. And, according to rumors, this issue is also being discussed in the ongoing negotiations on a new cooperation program with the Fund, according to which the first payment from the IMF of $ 8 billion is expected in January 2026.

So far, the draft budget for 2026 and IMF forecasts have included a devaluation of the hryvnia within the range of 45−46 UAH/$ by the end of next year.