The interbank dollar exchange rate rose to a record 40.3 UAH/$

Yesterday, the interbank dollar rose by another 0.5% to a record 40.29-40.3 UAH/$ (+1.8% for the week) against the background of the increase in the budget deficit and the government's ideas on covering expenses.

 

On May 28, the NBU set the official exchange rate for the dollar at UAH 40.3/$, and the euro at UAH 43.76/€.

 

After the Russian missile attacks, which destroyed energy facilities and critical infrastructure, the NBU lowered the forecast for the growth of Ukraine's economy in 2024 from 3.6% to 3%, but noted that despite the shelling, the economy continues to recover, and Ukraine's real GDP in 1- in the quarter of 2024 grew.

 

During May 20-24, the NBU reduced the sale of foreign currency by $193.4 million to $684.15 million compared to the previous week, purchasing $220,000 at the interbank. In total, in 2024, the National Bank sold $10.2 billion and purchased $105.7 million. Experts believe that by reducing the sale of foreign currency, the NBU and the government are trying to reduce the volume of imports and improve export performance. However, the hryvnia will continue to depreciate, as factors related to financial support from Western countries will contribute to this.

 

Oleg Pendzyn, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, told TSN in an interview that "now Ukraine is feeling the consequences of the delay in military aid from the US, because instead of paying the military, the government was forced to buy weapons to deter the aggressor. A "hole" of UAH 200 billion has formed in the state budget, which cannot be closed with Western aid funds, so taxes will have to be increased, in particular VAT and the military levy, which will lead to a jump in inflation and an increase in the exchange rate of the cash dollar to UAH 40.5/$ and higher . But in the end, the end consumer will pay for everything. An increase in the official exchange rate by the National Bank will only accelerate the devaluation of the hryvnia."

 

At the same time, financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn believes that the high dollar exchange rate is beneficial to the state, as it will allow to increase budget revenues from foreign economic activities and fees denominated in foreign currency and reduce imports.

 

At the same time, the president of the Ukrainian Analytical Center, Oleksandr Okhrimenko, said that in a few weeks, the demand for the currency will decrease, and the dollar's cash rate will again fall below UAH 40/$.