The dollar exchange rate on the interbank market rose sharply amid a decline in exports
For two days in a row, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market has renewed its historical maximum, and since the beginning of the week it has grown by 0.6% to 42.53/42.56 UAH/$. Now market participants are wondering whether the exchange rate will stabilize or whether the NBU will continue the planned depreciation of the exchange rate, as required by the IMF.
Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2% in 2025. According to an analytical report by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), this figure could have been much better, but economic dynamics were held back by targeted Russian attacks on critical infrastructure: gas production facilities, power grids, railway hubs, and seaports.
During 2025, the National Bank bought $42.15 million on the interbank market and sold $36.10 billion, i.e. net sales of currency reached a record $36.06 billion (in 2024 it amounted to $35.19 billion, in 2023 - $28.61 billion).
The hryvnia exchange rate is most pressured by a decrease in exports of goods and an increase in imports, as a result of which Ukraine's trade deficit increased from $25.4 to $38.3 billion in 11 months of 2025. According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, during January-November 2025, Ukraine imported goods worth $75.4 billion ($63.6 billion for the same period in 2024), and exported $36.8 billion ($38.3 billion).
The main directions of import of goods into Ukraine were:
- China — $17.0 billion,
- Poland — $7.1 billion,
- Germany — $5.9 billion.
The largest buyers of Ukrainian products were:
- Poland — $4.6 billion,
- Turkey — $2.5 billion,
- Germany — $2.2 billion.
Exports of agricultural products from Ukraine in 2025 decreased compared to the previous year by 8.8% or $2.15 billion to $22.53 billion, analysts of the Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club (UKAB) report.
At the same time, the agricultural sector continues to provide the main share of foreign exchange earnings to Ukraine. Its share in the overall structure of goods exports in 2025 was 56.1%, which is slightly lower than the record 61% in 2023.
The main trend of the past year, UCAB analysts call the reduction in agricultural exports to the European Union. In the previous three years of the war, the EU's share in the structure of Ukrainian agricultural exports consistently exceeded 50%, but in 2025 it decreased to 47.5%, or $10.7 billion. And the trade balance with the EU decreased from $8.87 billion in 2024 to $6.06 billion in 2025 due to changes in logistics routes and the cancellation of visa-free trade for Ukraine from June 2025.
If Ukrainian agricultural exports decreased in 2025, imports, on the contrary, grew and reached a record $8.75 billion over the last five years.
At the same time, the share of food products in Ukraine's total imports has remained stable at about 10.8% over the past four years, but the country pays more for these imports every year. Over 53% of all agricultural imports, worth $4.64 billion, came from the European Union.
