Soybean and rapeseed prices are growing despite an increase in the forecast of global oilseed production from the USDA

2021-07-13 12:11:46
Machine translation
Soybean and rapeseed prices are growing despite an increase in the forecast of global oilseed production from the USDA

In the July balance of supply and demand (WASDE), experts of the US Department of Agriculture increased the forecast of total world oilseed production in 2021/22 MG by 2.55 million tons compared to June estimates to a record 635.41 million tons against 600.2 million tons this season, mainly due to an increase in estimates of the sunflower crop in Russia by 2 million tons.


 While forecasts for rapeseed and soybean production remained virtually unchanged, and soybean stocks even increased.


In the world balance sheet for 2020/21 MG, the forecast of soybean production is reduced compared to the June forecast by 0.5 million tons to 363.57 million tons (339 million tons in 2019/20 mg), and consumption remained at the level of 368.9 million tons, but due to the decrease in the forecast of soybean exports from Brazil and Argentina by 3 and 2.65 million tons, as well as a decrease in imports to China by 2 million tons, the forecast of final soybean reserves at the end of 2020/21 mg is increased by 3.49 million tons to 91.49 million tons, against analysts ' expectations of about 87.6 million tons.


In the global soybean balance for my 2021/22, production and consumption forecasts remained almost unchanged compared to June estimates, but due to the increase in initial reserves, the final estimate was also increased by 1.94 million tons to 94.49 million tons, which is 3 million higher than the current season, although analysts estimated them at an average of 92.5 million tons.



Despite the bearish report on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday, July soybean futures jumped 2% to.526/ton as contracts expire this week, while November futures rose 1.6% to. 496/ton, amid concerns about a lack of precipitation on some crops. By the way, after trading, a weekly report on the state of crops was released, which showed that 59% of soybean crops (59% a week ago) are rated as good and excellent against 68% a year ago.


The forecast for global sunflower production in my 2021/22 was increased by 2.08 million tons to 56.99 million tons, which is 7.27 million tons higher than this season's harvest, and the consumption forecast was increased by 1.64 million tons to 55.81 million tons, which is 6.08 million tons more than this season.


An increase in sunflower sowing areas in Russia by 1 million hectares to 9.5 million hectares will lead to an increase in production by 2 million tons to 16.5 million tons (13.3 million tons in 2020), while the forecast for Ukraine remained at the same level of 16.7 million tons (14.1 million tons in 2020).



The decrease in forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU by 0.2 million tons to 17 million tons (16.248 million tons in 2020) and in Canada by 0.3 million tons to 20.2 million tons (19 million tons in 2020) will be offset by an increase in the harvest in Australia, and the forecast for total world rapeseed production in 2021/22 mg increased by 0.09 million tons to 74.135 million tons (71.8 million tons in 2020).



The forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU was increased by 0.15 million tons to 6.45 million tons against 6.2 million tons this season. The forecast of final rapeseed stocks in the 2021/22 season was reduced by 135 thousand tons to 5.584 million tons, which corresponds to the level of this season.



November rapeseed futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange continued to grow on Monday and added another 6%, reaching 929.7 CAD/Ton (7 746/ton), amid lower production forecasts in Canada, and August rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris rose by 14.5 €/ton to 541.75€/ton (6 643.1/ton).

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