Soybean Prices Decline Amid Optimistic USDA Soybean Balances for This and Next Season

The June WASDE report from the USDA did not bring significant changes to the global soybean balances for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 MY, leading to further declines in soybean prices.

Following the report's release, July soybean futures on the Chicago exchange fell to $432.6/t (-3.5% compared to post-report data in May), while November futures dropped by 0.4% to $421.5/t (-5.1%). New crop futures continue to decline at a faster rate.

In the global soybean balance for the 2023/24 MY, USDA experts did not make significant changes, although analysts expected a substantial reduction in the soybean production forecast for Brazil (reduced by 1 to 153 million tons compared to 162 million tons in the 2022/23 MY) and for Argentina (kept at 50 million tons compared to 25 million tons), while analysts estimated them at 151.8 million tons and 49.8 million tons, respectively.

Compared to the May estimate, the new balance for soybeans for the 2024/25 MY underwent the following changes:

- The initial stock estimate was reduced by 0.7 million tons to 111.07 million tons (100.39 million tons in the 2023/24 MY) due to adjustments in the 2023/24 MY balance.
- The global production forecast remained unchanged at 422.26 million tons, which is 6.7% higher than this season (395.91 million tons) and 11.6% higher than the 2022/23 MY (378.4 million tons).
- The global consumption estimate was reduced by 0.11 million tons to 401.63 million tons (383.34 million tons), which will be significantly lower than the production level.
- The global export forecast remained unchanged at 180.2 million tons (172.62 million tons).
- The global ending stock estimate was reduced by 0.6 million tons to 127.9 million tons (111.07 million tons, 99.7 million tons, and 100.3 million tons), although analysts estimated them at 127.25 million tons.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in the 2024/25 MY was reduced by 1.3 million tons to 87.1 million tons (88.39 million tons in the 2023/24 MY) due to a decrease in the crop in Australia by 1 million tons to 5.5 million tons (5.7 million tons) due to reduced planting areas, and in the EU by 0.25 million tons to 18.75 million tons (20 million tons).

Global rapeseed trade in the 2024/25 MY was reduced by USDA experts by 0.75 million tons to 16.9 million tons (16.7 million tons), including a reduction in exports from Australia by 0.9 million tons to 4.5 million tons.

On the MATIF exchange in Paris, August rapeseed futures fell by 1% to €465/t or $502.5/t (+2.9% for the month) yesterday, despite the reduction in forecasts, reacting more to the overall global balance of oilseeds for the new season.

The global sunflower balance for the 2024/25 MY was left unchanged by USDA experts in the June report.