Soybean quotes in Chicago fell 10% in a month on forecasts of an increase in the US harvest, which may reduce export prices and demand in Ukraine

Sunny and dry weather in the US is helping to complete the soybean harvest, and analysts are raising production forecasts in anticipation of the USDA's November report, which is putting pressure on soybean quotes.

Brokerage StoneX raised its 2026/27 U.S. soybean yield forecast by 0.9 bushels/acre to 55 bushels/acre, compared with USDA’s October estimate of 53.1 bushels/acre. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 0.4 bushels/acre increase to 53.5 bushels/acre, so we expect an improvement in the USDA’s November production forecast. StoneX’s bullish estimate puts the U.S. soybean harvest at about 128.6 million tons, compared with USDA’s 124.2 million tons.

According to USDA NASS, as of November 1, soybeans in the US have been harvested on 88% of the area, which is 4% more than the 5-year average.

November soybean futures in Chicago have fallen 10% to $434/t over the past month (-11.9% since the beginning of September, but +7.3% year-on-year). They are also pressured by a 4.8% decline in soybean oil quotes over the past 4 days to $1,372/t (-12.4% month-on-month, +24.6% year-on-year).

Platts estimates that the price of soybean oil for December delivery in Argentina FOB Up River decreased by $14.33/t to $1,188.95/t and in Brazil FOB Paranaguá - by $20.95/t to $1,193.36/t on the background of falling oil prices and very favorable weather conditions for sowing the new crop. Such a decline will increase the supply of soybeans and soybean oil on the world market and increase pressure on prices.

In Ukraine, due to high demand from processors and exporters, prices for GMO soybeans remain stable at 15,500–17,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory and 19,000 UAH/t or 400-420 $/t with delivery to the Danube ports or 420-440 $/t with delivery by rail to the western border, but a decrease in export prices is possible under global pressure.

As of November 1, 3.23 million tons of soybeans were threshed in Ukraine from 93% of the area or 1.492 million hectares, with an average yield of 2.16 tons/hectare.

Over the 29 days of October, Ukraine exported 110 thousand tons of soybeans (including 27.6 thousand tons to Poland, 23.6 thousand tons to Hungary, and 18.6 thousand tons to the Netherlands), which is significantly more than in September (34.4 thousand tons), as well as 25.2 thousand tons of soybean oil and 72.9 thousand tons of cake, which is equivalent to another 110 thousand tons of soybeans. Due to problems with supplies from Ukraine, European consumers are actively buying affordable and cheap soybeans from Brazil, so the fall in world prices will soon affect demand in Ukraine.

According to the European Commission, in the period from July 1 to October 25, EU countries reduced soybean imports compared to the corresponding period last year by 2.4% from 3.88 to 3.79 million tons, which is 11.5% lower than the same indicator in the 2024/25 MY (4.28 million tons). At the same time, soybean supplies from Brazil increased by 52.4% to 2.97 million tons (which is 78.39% of total imports), from the USA - decreased by 59.8% to 577.18 thousand tons (15.24%), and from Ukraine - by 60.5% to 144.52 thousand tons (3.8%).