Soybean prices in Chicago rose 3.7% on the day on hopes of resuming Chinese purchases

On news of China's purchase of 5 lots (about 300 thousand tons) of American soybeans, soybean futures on the SWOT exchange in Chicago rose by 3.7% yesterday, returning to the level of early June.

This season, speculators are actively using the topic of soybean supplies from the US to China to raise prices, although there were no real purchases even after Trump's visit to China, where he allegedly agreed to increase sales.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday rose 3.7% to $438/t (+4.8% month-on-month), fully recovering the decline of June 1, caused by an increase in soybean plantings in the US and favorable weather conditions.

Currently, the weather in the US remains favorable for corn and soybean crops, and heavy precipitation of 20-60 mm is forecast this week in all growing regions.

According to the NASS report, for the week of June 29 - July 5, the number of soybean crops in the US in good or excellent condition decreased by 1% to 64% (66% last year).

According to the US Agricultural Financial Monitoring Service (FGIS), soybean export shipments from the US for the period June 26 - July 2 increased by 19% compared to the previous week to 528.4 thousand tons (of which 268 thousand tons to China), and total exports since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY amounted to 37.85 million tons, which is 18.2% lower than the pace of the previous season.

It should be noted that, according to the Brazilian Ministry of Trade, in June alone, the country exported 14.5 million tons of soybeans (13.42 million tons in June 2025), of which 70% were sent to China, and in total, since the beginning of 2026, soybean exports from Brazil have reached 65 million tons.

Prices for Brazilian soybeans remain at $450/t FOB, and in China the duty on Brazilian soybeans is 3%, and on American soybeans - 10%, so Chinese importers actively buy cheap and high-quality soybeans from Brazil, and only political decisions of the authorities force them to buy volumes from the USA.