Soybean prices in Chicago rose 2.5% in a day amid reports of an agreement for China to resume purchases of soybeans from the US

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, after two days of meetings in Malaysia with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and other Chinese officials, said that Beijing intends to make "substantial purchases" of American soybeans, Bloomberg reported.

During the trade dispute with the US, China used soybean imports as a leverage factor, which strengthened its position in the latest round of negotiations.

On this news, November soybean quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday rose by 2.5% to $392/t (+3.6% for the week, +6.2% for the month).

Negotiations between the US and China have been going on for quite some time, so it is unlikely that a trade agreement will be signed at the short meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30, as many issues remain unresolved.

Let us recall that even after signing an agreement with the US during Trump's first term, China did not buy the declared volumes of American soybeans, but waited for the change of President, so the same story may happen now.

Chinese processors are well-stocked with soybeans until December, imports remain quite high, and favorable sowing weather in Brazil is helping to sell both the old and new soybean crops, which will hit the market in January.

In the 2025/26 MY (from September 1), the US exported 6.715 million tons of soybeans, which is 36.9% less than last year's rate, and there were no deliveries to China.

According to AgRural, as of October 23, 36% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in Brazil, and forecasts for the new crop, thanks to favorable weather, are 171-175 million tons compared to 167 million tons in the previous season.

Rising world prices and delayed harvests supported soybean prices in Ukraine, which rose by $3-5/t to $395-396/t or UAH 17,200-17,300/t delivered to port in a week. But export demand remains too weak, and world prices for meal continue to fall, so soybean price growth will be limited, especially if the US and China do not sign an agreement.