Soybean prices rose sharply, although the USDA slightly lowered its forecast for global oilseed production.

In the November report, USDA experts slightly lowered the forecast for global oilseed production in the 2026/27 MY, in particular sunflower production in the Russian Federation and soybeans in Ukraine, which is partially offset by an increase in soybean production in the US and rapeseed in Australia.

 

Compared to October estimates, the overall global oilseed balance for the 2026/27 MY has undergone the following changes:

 

• The forecast for global oilseed production has been reduced by 0.3 million tons to 721.9 million tons (701.28 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 686.96 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 657.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular, sunflower production - by 0.46 to 63.16 (55.34 million tons in 2025/26 MY) million tons and soybeans - by 0.2 to 442.5 (429.26) million tons, which is partially offset by an increase in the forecast for rapeseed production by 0.68 million tons to a record 100.25 (96.04) million tons.
• The forecast for global oilseed processing has been increased by 0.39 million tons to 612.28 million tons (594 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 568.95 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 543.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY) due to increased processing of soybeans and rapeseed.
• The estimate of global ending oilseed stocks has been reduced by 0.66 million tons to 145.65 million tons (145.56 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 144.4 million tons in 2024/25 MY, 136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

 

The forecast for world soybean production is reduced by 0.2 million tons to 442.50 million tons (429.26 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 428.1 million tons in 2024/25 MY), and the world balance is almost unchanged compared to October, September, August, July and June. The forecast for soybean production for the United States is increased by 0.33 million tons to 124.48 (116) million tons due to an increase in the yield estimate by 0.2 bushel/acre to 53.3 bushel/acre, although analysts expected an increase to 53.5 bushel/acre, and Stone X - even to 55 bushel/acre.

 

The report's data led to a speculative rise in November soybean futures in Chicago by 3.6% to $449.9/t, which are still trading 5.5% below the level reached after the October report was released.

 

The forecast for global rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 0.68 million tons to a record 100.25 million tons (96.04 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.28 million tons in 2024/25 MY) due to an improved estimate for Australia.

 

The forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU has been increased by 0.5 million tons to 7.05 (6.96 in 2025/26 MY and 8 million tons in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to the acceleration of supplies from Ukraine and an increase in the harvest in Australia.

 

After the release of the updated balance, February rapeseed futures in Paris rose by 0.5% to €527.5/t or $591/t (-5.4% per month) on expectations of increased imports.

 

January canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange rose 2.2% to CAD 770.4/t or $542/t (-6.2% for the month).

 

The forecast for global sunflower production has been reduced by 0.46 million tons to 63.16 million tons (55.34 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the Russian Federation - to 20.4 million tons, which will still exceed the figure for the previous season (17.5 million tons) by 2.9 million tons.

 

In Ukraine, sunflower prices fell by another UAH 1,000-2,000/t to UAH 15,500-16,000/t with delivery to the factory in a month under pressure from the increasing cost of product export logistics and the risks of new attacks by Russian aggressors on oil extraction plants (3 plants were damaged this week alone).

 

The fall in oil prices is increasing pressure on the prices of oilseeds and vegetable oils, so if exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation are unblocked, prices may decrease significantly in the second half of the season.