Soybean prices continue to rise following oil prices

The war in Iran is dragging on, and analysts no longer hope for a quick end to the blockade of oil exports from the Persian Gulf, so oil prices have again exceeded the psychological level of $100/barrel (+36% in two weeks), and prices for all agricultural goods related to biofuel production have accelerated their growth.

 

March futures for US soybeans in Chicago rose 4% to $450/t in a week (+4.9% since the start of the war), supported by an 8.7% increase in soybean oil prices in two weeks.

 

According to AgRural, due to prolonged rains, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 50% of the planned area as of March 12 (60% last year), but in the main soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso, the crop has been harvested on 85% of the area. The delay in harvesting also supports quotes.

 

Demand for vegetable oils is also increasing in Ukraine, but demand prices have increased by only $10-15/t, as European biofuel producers avoid purchasing oil at high prices, hoping for lower oil prices.

 

During the week, export demand prices for GMO soybeans in Ukrainian ports increased by $5/t to $445-450/t or UAH 19,600-19,800/t, and for non-GMO soybeans - by $5/t to $460-465/t or UAH 20,500-20,800/t.

 

Rising sunflower prices and a strengthening dollar will contribute to further increases in soybean prices for processors and increased competition with exporters.

 

During the week, processors' purchase prices for GMO soybeans remained at the level of 19,500-20,500 UAH/t, but they were willing to pay premiums for large batches.

 

The war in Iran could reduce demand from Turkey, which re-exported Ukrainian corn and soybeans to Iran and other countries.

 

On the Turkish market, Ukrainian soybeans are offered at a price of $500/t with delivery, while Brazilian or American soybeans are offered at $470-480/t. Recall that Egypt, which traditionally bought Ukrainian soybeans in 2025, switched to purchasing cheaper American soybeans.

 

According to the USDA FAS forecasts, Turkey will increase soybean imports to 4.2 million tons in 2025/26 MY due to increased supplies from the USA and Brazil. Recall that at the end of 2025, soybean imports from Ukraine temporarily slowed down due to shelling of Black Sea ports.

 

According to the Federal Agricultural Society of Turkey (FAS), from September to December, the country imported 891 thousand tons of soybeans (16% less than in the same period in 2024), of which 442 thousand tons were supplied from the USA, 358 thousand tons from Ukraine, and 60 thousand tons from Brazil.