Soybean, corn and wheat quotes in Chicago fell sharply due to the lack of new export agreements to China

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing ended without any significant results for American farmers who had been hoping for new agreements on agricultural supplies to China. Few details were released after the talks, although US Treasury Secretary Bessant said that "the issue of soybeans was taken into account."

Against this background, quotes on the Chicago Stock Exchange have fallen sharply. July futures:

• for American soybeans fell by 3.2% to $438.2/t (+0.8% per month),
• for soft winter wheat — by 2.7% to $241.8/t,
• for corn - by 2.9% to $184/t.

Recall that back in the fall, President Trump agreed with Chinese President Xi to export 12 million tons of American soybeans, and later to increase China's commitments to purchase American soybeans in the current season to 20 million tons. However, in the spring, China refocused on purchasing Brazilian soybeans.

Since the beginning of the 2025/26 MY, the US has shipped 34.04 million tons of soybeans compared to 44.08 million tons in September-April of the 2024/25 MY, of which only 10.78 million tons were delivered to China compared to 22.49 million tons a year earlier.

At the same time, soybean exports from Brazil in April reached a historical maximum of 16.75 million tons, which is 2.2 million tons more than in March and 1.5 million tons more than in April 2025. China remained the largest buyer of Brazilian soybeans in April - 11.6 million tons compared to 9.85 million tons in March, which is 0.8 million tons more than in the corresponding month last year.

In total, since the beginning of 2026, Brazil has exported 40.24 million tons of soybeans compared to 37.43 million tons in January-April 2025, of which 27.61 million tons were delivered to China compared to 27.69 million tons a year earlier.

CONAB raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean harvest in the 2025/26 MY by 0.98 million tons to 180.13 million tons. The corn production forecast was also raised by 0.6 million tons to 140.17 million tons. The increase was due to an increase in the estimate of the first harvest by 0.49 million tons, while the forecast for the second harvest was reduced by 0.66 million tons. At the same time, the third, or late, harvest in the northern regions increased by 0.77 million tons.