Vegetable oil quotes are rising, but purchase prices on physical markets are limited by low demand from buyers

Iran's attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of US strikes on Iranian military facilities continue to push oil prices higher, with quotes up 22% in the past two weeks, boosting demand for biofuels and supporting vegetable oil prices, which have resumed growth.

September Brent crude futures rose 7% to $91/barrel in 7 days (+22% in two weeks, +18% in a month) amid another suspension of oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

The intensification of shelling of Ukraine's Black Sea ports by the Russian Federation and numerous attacks with human casualties on civilian vessels off the coast of Ukraine and even off the coast of Romania and Turkey have practically paralyzed maritime exports from Ukraine, as shipowners do not risk loading vessels. This factor further increases demand and prices in other exporting countries, while purchase prices in Ukraine are falling.

The most affected by the suspension of exports from Ukraine were rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange (+7.9% in two weeks), which led to an increase in rapeseed oil prices in the EU by another $30-40/t to $1,570-1,575/t FOB Netherlands (+5.7% in two weeks). However, due to the reduction in seaborne rapeseed exports, we expect an increase in domestic rapeseed processing in Ukraine, which has fallen sharply in price, as well as an increase in supply and exports of cheap Ukrainian rapeseed oil with delivery to the western border of the EU. Demand prices for rapeseed oil with delivery to the EU have increased to $1,250-1,280/t, while demand prices with delivery to China remain at a low level of $1,275-1,300/t CFR. China continues to increase imports of rapeseed oil from the Russian Federation, and in the first 6 months of 2026, supplies increased by 31% compared to the same period in 2025 to 855 thousand tons, so one should not expect active demand from China for Ukrainian oil, especially against the backdrop of forecasts of an increase in the rapeseed harvest in the Russian Federation to a record level of 6.4 million tons (compared to 5.5 million tons last season).

December soybean oil futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago rose 1.3% to $1,577/t over the week (+6.5% over two weeks), supported by rising oil and soybean prices following new purchases by China of new crop soybeans from the US.

During the week, spot prices for soybean oil in Brazil, following quotes in Chicago, increased by $10/t to $1,200-1,210/t FOB, and soybean oil futures in Dalian (China) for August delivery increased by $10-15/t to $1,250-1,260/t.

August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange rose by only 0.8% during the week to 4,610 ringgit/t or $1,127/t and are trading at the same level as two weeks ago, barely reacting to the rise in oil prices due to lower demand from India, which processes its own crop.

Sunflower oil bid prices in India rose by $5/t to $1,450-1,455/t CIF Mumbai during the week amid reduced supply from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, but Russian sunflower oil bid prices remain at $1,340-1,360/t FOB as exporters try to maximize sales of old crop residues at high prices in anticipation of a record sunflower harvest and increased supply from September, which will lower the price.

In Ukraine, purchases with delivery to Black Sea ports have practically stopped due to constant shelling, but there are offers to sell sunflower oil at a price of $1,380-1,385/t FOB - Danube ports.

A good harvest of rapeseed and sunflower in the EU, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation will continue to increase supply on the vegetable oil market, so buyers are very cautious about buying oil at high prices, expecting a decrease in oil prices thanks to another truce, which the US and Iran are talking about again.