Quotes for vegetable oils are growing even against the background of the "bearish" forecast of the USDA
In the November report on the supply and demand of vegetable oils, experts of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly increased their forecasts (compared to October estimates) of world production of vegetable oils in 2021/22 MG lowered the forecast of consumption, which will slightly increase the forecast of Final stocks. But the reaction of markets to the report's data turned out to be, as always, against logic, and prices showed a rapid rebound after a decline at the end of last week.
The forecast for global vegetable oil production was raised by 0.24 million tons to 214.79 million tons, which is 8.21 million tons higher than the 2020/21 MG level due to a small correction in the increase in forecasts for the production of rapeseed, soybean and sunflower oils.
The forecast for global consumption of vegetable oils was lowered by another 0.46 million tons (minus 0.47 million tons in the October report) to 211.79 million tons due to rising prices for vegetable oils, but still 5.811 million tons will exceed the figure of 2020/21 mg. The main changes in the balance sheet relate to a decrease in the consumption of palm oil imports, which rose in price as recently as possible and reached the level of prices for soybean and sunflower oils, although earlier premiums for soybean and sunflower oil reached 15-30% in relation to palm prices.
The estimate of the world's final vegetable oil reserves in 2021/22 MG was sharply increased by 1.06 million tons to – 24.01 million tons (25.03 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to an increase in palm oil reserves by 0.8 million tons to 13.07 million tons (12.97 million tons in 2020/21 MG).
It is worth noting that the forecast of world imports of vegetable oils decreased by 0.21 million tons to 86.81 million tons (81.91 million tons in 2020/21 MG), including a slight decrease in imports to China, but India after reducing import duties will increase imports of vegetable oil by 0.4 million tons to 15.25 million tons (14.56 million tons in 2020/21 MG), including palm oil by 0.3 million tons to 8.6 million tons against 8.47 million tons in 2020/21mg.
December palm oil futures on the Malaysian stock exchange jumped 2.7% yesterday to 4,920 ringgit/ton, or.1,184/ton, after falling 5.8% last week amid rising inventories and declining exports in Malaysia.
December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange reacted with a slight increase to the release of an unexpectedly "bullish" forecast for the global soybean balance and a decrease in the forecast for soybean production in the United States, adding only 1.5% to 1 1,306/ton.
Prices for Black Sea sunflower oil also slightly decreased to F 1,365-F 1,390/ton FOB, and the refusal of the Egyptian state agency GASC to purchase 30 thousand tons of soybean and 10 thousand tons of sunflower oil at the tender due to high offer prices will become an additional factor of pressure on prices in the near future.
