Rapeseed prices rise amid possible introduction of export duty in Ukraine

Rapeseed prices on the stock exchanges are rising due to expectations of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine's decision to introduce a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans. The relevant amendments may be considered on July 16 within the framework of draft law No. 13157 , which concerns amendments to the Tax Code.

Against this background, August rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange increased by 2.3% on July 14 to €476.25/t (≈$553/t) , although they remain 3.9% lower than the level a month ago.

In the July USDA report, the forecast for global rapeseed production for the 2025/26 MY was slightly lowered to 89.5 million tons (–0.2 million tons from the previous forecast), but this is still 3.85 million tons more than in the 2024/25 MY. The main growth is expected in:

• EU: +2.6 million tons (+15.4%) - up to 19.45 million tons,

• Russian Federation: +0.65 million tons (+14.0%) — up to 5.3 million tons,

• India: +0.5 million tons (+4.2%) - up to 12 million tons.

In Ukraine, a slight reduction in the harvest is forecast — to 3.7 million tons (–2.6%), although local estimates range between 2 and 2.8 million tons. In the event of a tariff or a reduction in the harvest in Ukraine, a serious shortage of rapeseed in the EU is not expected due to record local production. This limits the potential for price growth on the market — a maximum of €10–20/ton for deliveries in the second half of the season.

The introduction of tariffs without market coordination is politically worrying, as it contradicts the expectations of Ukraine's main partner, the EU.

Meanwhile, exporters in Ukraine have not declared prices in hryvnias for a week, awaiting the parliament's decision. At the same time, purchases continue at $530–535/t with delivery to ports.