Rapeseed quotes are rising due to supply delays, but prices in Ukraine remain stable due to higher logistics costs

Despite an increase in the Canadian canola crop forecast and the global canola production forecast for 2026/27, canola quotes continued to rise last week on stronger demand from processors and the biodiesel industry. This supported canola quotes in Paris, which are also rising amid supply shortages.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange have risen 4.2% to CAD 828/t or $ 597/t over the past 7 days (+2.2% month-on-month and +25.5% year-on-year) on the back of increased demand for canola oil from US processors. Such a high canola price makes Canadian canola exports to the EU economically unprofitable and calls into question China's ability to purchase expensive canola, especially given the increase in Australian canola harvest forecasts to 7.5-8 million tons compared to 7.7 million tons last season.

November rapeseed futures on the Matif exchange in Paris rose by 1.9% to €549/t or $636/t over the week and are trading at the same level as last month.

Slowing down supplies due to lower water levels in EU rivers and the halt in supplies from Ukraine's Black Sea ports is increasing demand for rapeseed at factories, but overall they have sufficient stocks, so they buy rapeseed 20-25 €/t cheaper than on Matif.

In Ukraine, processors maintain the demand prices for rapeseed at the level of 20,000-21,500 UAH/t (oil content 44%) with delivery to factories, since they have already purchased the volumes needed for 2-3 months, and logistical problems with the export of rapeseed meal and oil remain unresolved. Logistics by Eurotrains is significantly limited (and has already been bought up by traders by spring), so the cost of autologistics has increased by 20-40%, which does not allow processors to raise prices. Farmers are increasing sales of rapeseed to processors for hryvnia, preferring to sell rapeseed at low prices in order to sell sunflower left in storage more expensively in the spring.

Exporters shipping rapeseed from domestic elevators to western terminals are leaving prices at 21,000-21,500 UAH/t EXW elevators due to limited opportunities for rail exports to the EU.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in the ports of the Danube and the Black Sea also remain at the level of $470-490/t or 21,000-22,000 UAH/t, and only at the terminals on the western border have prices increased to $460-490/t or 21,500-22,500 UAH/t with DAP delivery.

As of August 17, 3.76 million tons of rapeseed were harvested in Ukraine from 1.32 million hectares or 99% of the area, with an average yield of 2.85 tons/hectare, which is in line with forecasts. According to our estimates, rapeseed exports from Ukraine this season will not exceed 1.8-2 million tons, and processing will increase to 1.6-1.8 million tons.