Rapeseed quotes remain stable, but the market expects a new crop from Australia and updated data from Canada

Rapeseed quotes remain generally stable, as do demand prices in Ukraine, as the market has sufficient supply and awaits the arrival of the new crop from Australia and its possible impact on prices.

 

Oil World has raised its estimate of the EU rapeseed harvest this season to 20.3 million tonnes, while USDA experts have raised it to 20.2 million tonnes, which is 3.4 million tonnes more than in 2024/25. This means that EU rapeseed imports could fall to less than 6 million tonnes compared to 8 million tonnes last year.

 

February rapeseed futures in Paris have been holding at €483.25/t or $560/t for the past week, up +1.2% month-on-month and +3.5% in two months. These values correspond to the start of the season, when production forecasts were lower, so the market expects a gradual decline in quotes. This is also confirmed by the fact that May futures are already €5 cheaper than February futures, and the new crop is €20 cheaper, given the favorable conditions for winter rapeseed in the EU.

 

The International Grains Council (IGC) estimated the global rapeseed area at 44.1 million hectares, which is 0.2 million hectares more than in the 2025/26 MY:

January Canadian canola futures on ICE have been almost unchanged for two weeks and are trading at 652 CAD/t or 464.5 $/t (+2% month-on-month), returning to early September levels in anticipation of demand from China.

 

According to Oil World, in the first 3 months of the 2025/26 MY, canola processing in Canada increased to a maximum of 2.9 million tons compared to 2.89 million tons last year, while exports in August-October fell to 1.4 million tons, which is more than 50% less than last year.

 

StatCan will release a new estimate of the canola crop next week. Analysts expect the forecast to increase to 20.5-21 million tonnes (previous estimate - 19.9 million tonnes), while the USDA predicts 20 million tonnes.

 

Weak exports and a record Canadian canola harvest are putting pressure on rapeseed prices, increasing the discount to European rapeseed to $95/t. Recall that the discount on the market reached -130...-140 $/t when China effectively stopped importing canola.

 

In Ukraine, demand from processors remains low due to falling prices for meal and oil. Exporters are keeping purchase prices stable at UAH 23,500–24,400/t or $545–555/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Precipitation is improving the condition of winter rapeseed crops in Ukraine, sown on 1.1 million hectares, so the harvest is expected to be no lower than this year's.

 

In Australia, the rate of canola harvest is increasing and the weather is conducive to a large crop. The market is waiting to see whether strong demand from China will emerge, or whether a surplus of soybean meal and low prices in the Chinese domestic market will restrain canola imports.