Rapeseed quotes in Paris rise amid new surge in oil prices and Germany's clarification of biofuel directives, but are limited by forecasts of a good harvest in the EU

The sharp 14% increase in oil prices over the past week continues to support biofuel demand and rapeseed prices.

In addition, in Germany, the Bundestag on April 24 adopted legislative amendments to the RED III directive, which set new increased targets for the use of biofuels and abolished double counting of biofuels, which will allow for an increase in real demand for physical biofuels from January 1, 2026. This should clear the market of fraud and support prices for real volumes of biofuels.

Due to scandals involving the import of questionable biodiesel from Asia, new rules are being introduced from 2027, requiring on-site inspections to confirm the sustainable origin of raw materials and completely banning the use of palm oil products (including POME) to meet quotas.

May rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange, which expire on April 30, rose 8.6% during the week to a season-high of €552/t, but August futures rose only 3.5% to €509/t or $596/t on forecasts of a good harvest in the EU.

May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 2.1% during the week to 729 CAD/t (unchanged for the month) or $535/t, and November futures rose 1.9% to 738 CAD/t (+0.5% for the month).

USDA experts predict that the area sown with rapeseed in the EU in 2026 will increase by 2.7% compared to the previous year to 6.3 million hectares due to high rapeseed prices in the fall of 2025. However, the rapeseed harvest will decrease from 20.5 to 20.4 million tons due to a deterioration in yield.

Almost 75% of all European rapeseed is grown in France, Germany, Poland and Romania. And experts from the German Oilseed and Grain Crops Promotion Union (UFOP) expect an increase in rapeseed areas in all these countries.

Recall that representatives of the Russian holding EFKO predict that by 2030 the country will process 94% of the rapeseed harvest, and the capacity utilization rate will increase from 80% to 90%.