Rapeseed quotes in Paris are falling and putting pressure on prices in Ukraine, but in Canada, the fall in canola prices has stopped.

Rapeseed oilseed prices on the Paris stock exchange fell 1.6% to a 6-month low of €460/t or $541.2/t on the pressure of improved harvest forecasts in Canada and Australia and lower prices for Canadian canola. However, it is worth noting that European farmers have suspended sales and importers have no sources of supply, as Canada is still harvesting and Australia will start harvesting in December, while exports from Ukraine have stopped due to the introduction of export duties and problems with export documentation.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine fell by $5-10/t to $525-545/t (22,500-23,000 UAH/t) for delivery to Black Sea ports in a week, but traders note a sharp drop in rapeseed supply from farmers who have started harvesting sunflower, soybeans, and corn.

Producers have switched to selling new crop sunflower, which has risen in price by UAH 500-1,000/t in a week to UAH 27,000-28,000/t (oil content 50%) or $570-590/t excluding VAT, so farmers are speeding up harvesting to take advantage of high prices.

Demand for rapeseed from processors also remains high due to good processing margins and a shortage of sunflower supplies, but prices also decreased during the week to levels of 23,300-24,300 UAH/t delivered to the plant.

November canola futures in Winnipeg rose 1.6% yesterday to 627CAD/t or $455/t (-8.5% month-on-month) on expectations of the outcome of negotiations with China (where an official delegation from Canada is currently located) and against the backdrop of the Canadian government allocating $370 million to support canola producers and processors suffering from the closure of exports to China.

The Chinese government has officially extended its anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola imports for six months, until March 9, 2026, increasing pressure on Canadian authorities, but has almost completed work on a framework program to restore canola exports from Australia.

We believe that China will soon resume imports of Canadian canola (in exchange for reduced tariffs on its electric vehicles) in order to provide processors with raw materials as much as possible in the period from October to January (when soybean supplies from Brazil decrease) and increase pressure on the US in trade negotiations by refusing to buy American soybeans.