Rapeseed quotes in Paris have increased, but prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from export duties

Forecasts of a decrease in the sunflower harvest in both Ukraine and the EU are increasing demand for rapeseed from processors as an alternative raw material, but over the past week, rapeseed quotes in Paris have increased, while in Ukraine, demand prices have practically not changed.

November rapeseed quotes in Paris rose 3.8% over the week to a 3-month high of €483.75/t or $562/t.

The main supporting factor was the increase in sunflower oil prices in the EU to the level of $1,350-1,370/t, which led to an increase in rapeseed oil prices to $1,300-1,310/t FOB Netherlands.

It is worth noting that, against the background of the lack of active rapeseed supplies from Ukraine, European farmers also began to restrain sales when prices fell below the psychological level of €500/t delivered to the factory, so processors increased their purchases of canola from Canada.

November Canadian canola futures rose 2.3% to CAD 627/t or $450/t in the week, but are still trading $110/t lower than Paris futures, making Canadian canola the most attractive for active imports to the EU. Australian canola is priced $40-50/t more expensive and deliveries are only possible from January.

In the first three months of the 2025/26 marketing year, the EU reduced rapeseed imports by 30% compared to the same period of the previous season to 1.03 million tons, in particular, supplies from Ukraine by 70% to 591 thousand tons, from Australia by 2.5 times to 137 thousand tons, while imports from Moldova increased by 3.5 times to 197 thousand tons.

In Ukraine, the export of rapeseed and soybeans without payment of duties by producers is still not regulated, as customs require payment of 10% of the duty as a deposit for export and confirmation of producer status, which is why farmers are holding back on export sales.

Export prices for rapeseed in Ukraine increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 23,500-23,800 UAH/t over the week due to the rise in the dollar exchange rate, but dollar prices remained at $540-550/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Against the background of increasing sunflower supply, fewer and fewer processors are buying rapeseed, so the demand prices for it have decreased by 300-500 UAH/t to 2380-24000 UAH/t ($500-510/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the factory. The decrease in demand and prices for rapeseed meal to $170-180/t with delivery to the port has become one of the main reasons for the decrease in demand for rapeseed from domestic processors.

Rapeseed exports from Ukraine for 28 days of October amounted to only 125 thousand tons (compared to 535 thousand tons last year), and in total since the beginning of the season reached 1 million tons compared to 2.4 million tons last year.

Rising rapeseed quotations in the EU may increase export demand and prices in Ukraine, but farmers will only increase sales after the end of autumn field work.