Rapeseed quotes on exchanges will recover after a fall, which supports prices in Ukraine

There is still very strong nervousness on the Ukrainian rapeseed market, associated with uncertainty about the timing of the introduction of export duties (which were voted on by parliament but not signed by the president), as well as the day before yesterday's drop in stock quotes caused by China's introduction of duties on Canadian canola.

November canola futures in Winnipeg, after a sharp drop of 4.6% on Tuesday, rose 1.5% yesterday to 660 CAD/t or 480 $/t, followed by November rapeseed futures in Paris, which rose 1.6%, returning to the previous level of 473.75 €/t or 554.5 $/t.

If China maintains tariffs on Canadian canola, it will be forced to buy canola from Australia, which will sharply reduce supplies of Australian canola to the EU, so it is important for European importers to buy the maximum volume of rapeseed in Ukraine.

In 2024/25, the EU imported about 7.3 million tonnes of rapeseed (compared to 5.7 million tonnes in 2023/24), of which 3.5 million tonnes came from Australia, 2.5 million tonnes from Ukraine and 1 million tonnes from Canada. In 2025/26, imports will decrease to 5.8-6 million tonnes due to an increase in domestic production, but reduced supplies from Australia could have a significant impact on the market.

USDA experts have lowered the forecast for the rapeseed harvest in Ukraine from 3.7 to 3.5 million tons, but currently only 2.5 million tons of rapeseed have been threshed from 80% of the areas, so it is clear that the harvest will not exceed 3 million tons. Traders are intensifying purchases in order to purchase the maximum volumes for export. It should be noted that the introduction of duties will allow processors to buy up to 1 million tons of rapeseed, so traders will have 1.5-1.8 million tons left for export, with the USDA forecast of 2.9 million tons.

Yesterday morning, after a drop in stock prices, traders in Ukraine lowered export prices for rapeseed under currency contracts to $515-520/t, but at the end of the day they raised them again to $530-540/t CPT with delivery to Black Sea ports, offering UAH 23,500-24,000/t under hryvnia contracts.

Yesterday morning, processors lowered the purchase prices for rapeseed with an oil content of 46-47% to 22,600-23,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, and for oil content above 47-48%, they are offering a premium of 300 UAH/t.

Farmers are currently holding back sales in anticipation of demand stabilization and an increase in rapeseed prices to the level of $550-560/t or UAH 25,000-26,000/t, observing that sunflower prices have resumed growth and have already reached UAH 27,000-28,000/t with delivery to the factory. Therefore, farmers are trying to sell sunflower first, postponing the sale of rapeseed until later.

By the end of the week, the rapeseed harvest will be completed in Ukraine, and the actual harvest will become clear, so competition between exporters and processors will intensify, which will lead to a further increase in purchase prices.