Wheat prices dropped by another 2-3.4% due to accelerated harvesting in the USA
The week began on global exchanges with continued declines in wheat prices, with soft winter wheat in Chicago leading the fall, losing 3.4% yesterday and 13% for the month due to accelerated harvesting and good yield data.
According to NASS USDA, as of June 9, winter wheat in the USA has been harvested on 12% of the area compared to 7% last year and 6% on average over 5 years, while spring wheat has been sown on 98% of the planned area (96% last year and on average over 5 years). In good or excellent condition are 72% of spring wheat crops (60% last year).
Yesterday, July wheat futures decreased:
- by 3.4% to $223.2/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (-13% for the month),
- by 3.5% to $236.5/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-8.7%),
- by 2.9% to $248.1/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-9.3%),
- by 2% to €239/t or $257.4/t for September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (-4.4%).
Traders on exchanges are now more focused on forecasts of increased yields in the USA and the anticipation of the June USDA report, which will be released on June 12. According to analysts surveyed by Fastmarkets, USDA experts are expected to increase the forecast for US wheat stocks but slightly lower the estimates for global stocks by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year.
In Ukraine, an earlier start of the harvest by 2-3 weeks is also expected due to dry conditions in the center and east of the country. Harvest forecasts are still lower than last year, although recent productive rains in the south and northwest improve the crop potential.
Purchase prices for feed wheat continue to decline and are already offered at 190-198 $/t or 9000-9100 UAH/t, and for food wheat at 205-210 $/t or 9400-9700 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.
