Wheat quotes in Chicago rose by 20% in a month amid suspension of exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation

After the CIA chief's visit to Russia, Putin ordered increased strikes on Ukraine, considering peace talks fruitless, Bloomberg reported, citing sources close to the Kremlin. This led to a sharp increase in stock market quotes for wheat and other crops.

Ukraine and the Russian Federation continue mutual attacks on civilian infrastructure, effectively blocking key ports and shipping routes, which reduces supplies from the Black Sea region. Thus, in August 2025, the Russian Federation and Ukraine together exported 6.3 million tons of wheat, and in August 2026, exports will not exceed 2.5 million tons, of which 2 million tons will be supplied from the Russian Federation and only 0.5 million tons from Ukraine.

Traders are increasingly convinced that there will be no rapid recovery of wheat exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, so stock market quotes continue to grow, and on Friday, on the news of another sunken ship, they rose by 1.7-3.3%. Soft wheat quotes in Chicago rose by 20% in a month to a 3.5-year high.

September wheat futures rose on Friday:

• by 3.3% to $281.8/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+20% per month),
• by 3% to $304.2/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+17%),
• by 1.7% to $273.8/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+8%),
• by 2.4% to €239.5/t or $278.8/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+7.5%).

It should be noted that December futures are trading $6-7/t higher, confirming that traders do not expect the supply situation to improve.

Heavy shelling of Ukraine's Black Sea and Danube ports by Russian aggressors continues, which severely hampers grain deliveries to ports and ship shipments from Danube ports, and also continues to increase freight and transshipment costs.

Thus, on August 27, the PROGRESS IV vessel, flying the flag of the Dominican Republic, was heading from Reni, Ukraine, to Turkey with a cargo of sugar, but after leaving Ukrainian territorial waters approximately 15-20 nautical miles from the Romanian coast, it was severely damaged, caught fire and subsequently sank. All 12 crew members were rescued, but the situation became an additional factor of pressure on prices, as ships began to be attacked even in international territorial waters.

It should be noted that in the 2026/27 MY, wheat export sales from the US amounted to only 8.342 million tons, which is 31% lower than last year's pace and is 40% of the USDA forecast, although usually about 52% of the crop has already been sold during this period.

According to the European Commission, in the 2026/27 MY (as of August 16), the EU reduced wheat exports by 49% compared to the previous season, from 2.9 to 1.48 million tons, as importers have significant wheat stocks and are in no hurry to buy expensive European and American wheat, understanding that the accumulated volumes of Russian and Ukrainian wheat could enter the market at any time and collapse prices if at least some kind of agreement on a "maritime truce" is reached, which Turkey is actively working on, trying to bring the parties to the negotiating table.