Wheat quotes continue to fall, not responding to the forecast of a sharp decrease in wheat exports from Ukraine

The representative of the FAS USDA in Kyiv sharply lowered forecasts for wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 MY against the backdrop of blocking exports due to the worsening of the situation in the Black Sea, increased Russian attacks on the port infrastructure of Greater Odessa and civilian vessels, which is why shipowners began to refuse voyages to Ukrainian ports.

Thus, the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 MY has been reduced by 25.5% compared to previous estimates, from 14.5 to 10.8 million tons.

The situation is additionally complicated by the shallowing of the Danube, which limits the capacity of alternative routes.

Logically, forecasts of a sharp decline in exports by one of the main wheat suppliers should have increased demand and prices for European and American wheat, but the reaction of the exchanges was the opposite. Quotations for soft wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell by 2.4% yesterday, while soft wheat in Chicago remained unchanged.

During the week, September wheat futures fell (for the second week in a row):

• by 1.6% to $235.4/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+0.8% per month),
• by 0.5% to $262.2/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+6.9%),
• by 3.7% to $246.2/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.3%),
• by 3.7% to €217.75/t or $251.6/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+0.7%).

Quotes have almost completely lost the sharp increase in July caused by the halt in sea exports from Ukraine, although there are no signs of a rapid recovery in sea exports from Ukraine; instead, export restrictions are also expected from the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine practically did not change and were declared at the level of 8200-8900 UAH/t or 160-175 $/t for food wheat, and 7900-8200 UAH/t or 155-160 $/t for feed wheat with delivery to the ports of the Danube and the Black Sea.

Demand prices for food wheat from processors have decreased to UAH 7,000-7,500/t delivered to mills, while farmers continue to restrain active sales, hoping that traders will establish new export routes to the EU or Romanian ports.

Traders are expecting an updated global wheat balance from the USDA (to be released on August 12), which will lower export forecasts from Ukraine and raise forecasts for the EU and the US, to which quotes will react more strongly.