Wheat quotes on exchanges are declining, but in Ukraine export demand keeps prices high

Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and the collapse of the US stock market, wheat quotes fell by 0.9-3.2% last week. However, in Ukraine, export demand prices for wheat remained unchanged at 10,300-10,500 UAH/t (or $218-221/t) for food wheat and 9,650-9,850 UAH/t (or $206-207/t) for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the 2025/26 MY (as of October 13), Ukraine exported 5.176 million tons of wheat, which is 37% lower than the corresponding figure last year (7.08 million tons). Given the fall in prices on world markets and the restraint of sales by Ukrainian farmers, the pace of exports will continue to decline until the end of the year.

Delaying the harvest of sunflower and soybeans will not allow winter wheat to be sown at the optimal time, so the area under it may decrease. As of October 7, 2025, 2.35 million hectares were sown with winter wheat in Ukraine, which is 46% of the planned area.

Sovecon experts have again raised their forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2025 by 0.6 million tons from 87.8 million tons due to a record wheat yield in Siberia and favorable harvesting conditions. The increase in the supply of Russian wheat is leading to a decrease in prices.

December wheat futures in the US fell during the week:

• by 3.2% to $182.5/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 3% to $176.8/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.9% to $203/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

At the same time, December wheat contracts on the Euronext exchange (Paris) rose by 0.7% to €189/t or $218.8/t.

The Tunisian Grain Agency (ODC) purchased 100,000 tons of soft wheat from Bunge in a tender on September 10 for delivery from November 5 to December 15, 2025 at a price of $254.58/ton C&F, which is $2.4/ton lower than in the previous tender on September 3.

The General Authority for Food Security of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) has purchased about 500,000 tons of wheat directly from overseas Saudi investors after contracting 455,000 tons of wheat in an international tender on October 3.

Due to the shutdown in the US, federal agencies are not working, so the USDA did not release a report on world grain balances and weekly reports on sowing and export shipments, which reduces the informational impact on quotes. However, later updated statistical data can significantly affect quotes.