Oil prices rise amid OPEC+ decision and Ukrainian “sanctions” on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet

Oil prices fell on Friday in anticipation of talks between Ukrainian and US delegations and a further visit by a US representative to Russia this week, as well as hopes for a suspension of the Russian war against Ukraine and increased supplies from Russia.

February Brent crude futures fell 0.6% to $62.4/barrel on Friday (+0.6% for the week and -3.8% for the month), but overall rose 2% for the week amid weekend events.

President Trump's decision to close Venezuelan airspace and demand that President Maduro leave the country were perceived by the market as the beginning of a US military operation in Venezuela that could stop oil supplies from the region.

Over the weekend, Ukrainian special services struck two tankers from the Russian shadow fleet in the Black Sea, raising concerns about oil supplies from Russia. Later, information was received about the sinking of another sanctioned tanker off the coast of Senegal (the team stated that the tanker was attacked by a naval drone, but Ukrainian special services did not confirm this information).

Ukraine has attacked at least 28 Russian oil refineries over the past three months, leading to a significant drop in Russian oil production. Such effective “sanctions” are already yielding some results. According to Vortexa, Russian oil product supplies fell to 1.7 million barrels per day in the first 15 days of November, the lowest level in over 3 years.

US sanctions are also reducing demand for Russian oil, causing tanker inventories to rise. According to Vortexa, crude oil stored on tankers that have been idle for at least 7 days rose 9.7% in the week to 114.31 million barrels, the highest level in 2.25 years.

At the 40th meeting of OPEC and partner countries ministers on November 30, 2025, it was decided to maintain the current oil production policy and suspend the previously planned increase in production for the first quarter of 2026 on the expectation of a global oil surplus of 500,000 barrels per day (compared to 400,000 barrels in the third quarter).

Crude oil prices remain under pressure from uncertainty over the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and concerns about a new US war against Venezuela, so oil prices will continue to respond to political decisions, although global oil supply is quite high, and the trend will continue next year.