Oil prices fell 7.4% in a week, but another exchange of missile strikes between the US and Iran resumed price growth

November Brent crude futures, after a two-week rise of 13% last week, fell 7.4% to $88/barrel (+4.1% month-on-month) on news of an increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But on Sunday, the US carried out its first strikes in a month on launchers on Larak Island, from where the IRGC planned to remotely mine the strait, and on Monday night, Iran attacked US bases in Jordan and the UAE.

Because of this, on Monday, since the start of trading on Asian markets, oil futures rose again by 2.2% to $90/barrel.

On Saturday, a supertanker caught fire and was disabled in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz after two naval mines were detonated, although the US had previously stated that it had cleared the strait of mines and sharply increased the passage of ships through Hormuz.

According to Goldman Sachs, oil exports from the Persian Gulf have increased to 15-16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

There is information that the US has secretly carried out dredging work and created a new 490-meter-wide shipping corridor in the Omani part of the Strait of Hormuz, which allowed large oil tankers to pass outside of Iran's direct line of sight.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a retaliatory missile strike on two US military bases in Jordan overnight, the authorities of which stated that all missiles were intercepted and did not cause any damage.

President Trump said last week that the United States has no interest in returning to the terms of the agreement signed with Iran in June, and the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue. The United States is currently playing a long game with Iran and does not plan to intensify military action, but the conflict will limit the supply of crude oil from the Middle East.

Trump's announcement that the US has gained control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, which will go to replenish the US strategic reserves, is also putting pressure on oil prices.

Ukraine in August stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting one oil refinery each day, which will continue to restrict the processing and export of Russian crude oil.

According to EA Analytics, the average rate of crude oil refining in the Russian Federation in July was 3.51 million barrels/day, which is the lowest figure in 24 years, and crude oil production in the Russian Federation in July fell to a 6-year low of 8.89 million barrels/day.

According to Vortexa, crude oil stocks stored on tankers that have been idle for at least 7 days fell by 11% to 97.71 million barrels in the week of August 15-21, indicating an increase in tanker traffic.