Oil prices fell to their lowest level since the start of the Iran war amid active oil exports from the Persian Gulf

September Brent crude futures fell to their lowest since the start of the Middle East war at $71.9/barrel this week after the US and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire, down 32% in one month. August WTI crude futures also fell 36% in one month to $67.7/barrel, and are trading only $3-4/barrel higher than they were before February 28, 2026.

A sharp increase in oil supplies from the Middle East has reduced speculative demand, but analysts consider the current price level to be the bottom of the market, as countries will now begin to actively replenish their strategic reserves. During the rise in prices, American exporters sharply increased oil sales and now, after the fall in prices, will reduce exports and increase sales on the domestic market.

According to the EIA, as of June 26, crude oil inventories in the United States were 7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and gasoline inventories were 6.5% below the seasonal 5-year average.

According to Bloomberg, over the past week, crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia have risen to 6.3 million barrels per day, which is 90% of the pre-war level, and supplies from the UAE have increased to more than 3.9 million barrels per day, restoring pre-war export levels.

The passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz has reached a level of about 40 ships per day, although before the war this figure reached 100 ships per day. Even such volumes allow for the restoration of supplies of both oil and other goods, so we expect increased demand for agricultural products from the countries of the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg, the average rate of Russian crude oil exports in the four weeks increased to 4.13 million barrels/day, which is the highest rate since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This is due to an increase in oil sales at high prices in May and June, as well as a sharp reduction in oil refining capacity within the Russian Federation due to attacks by Ukrainian drones. The average rate of crude oil refining in the Russian Federation in the first 10 days of June fell to a 20-year low of 4.32 million barrels/day.

Prices for Russian Urals oil have fallen by 40% since the beginning of June to $45/barrel (although they reached $115/barrel in April), which will continue to collapse the Russian economy and increase the budget deficit.

According to Vortexa, crude oil inventories stored on tankers that have been idle for at least 7 days decreased by 9.4% to 82.24 million barrels in the week of June 20-26.

Stabilizing oil prices and the opening of the Persian Gulf should boost demand for grains and oilseeds as markets move into planned purchases for the upcoming season, especially amid sharp declines in wheat and barley prices in recent weeks.