Oil quotes at the end of 2025 are trading 18% cheaper than a year ago

The slowdown in the global economy due to the uncertain tariff policy of the United States, as well as the increase in oil supply on the world market, became the main factors putting pressure on Brent oil prices, which decreased by 18% over the year to the level of the beginning of 2021.

 

February Brent crude futures closed trading on December 31, 2025 at $60.9/barrel, down 1.8% for the month and 18% for the year.

 

Additionally, the pressure on prices was increased by the bearish EIA report, according to which gasoline inventories in the US rose by 5.8 million barrels (with expectations of an increase of 1.95 million barrels) to an 8.5-month high, and distillate inventories by 4.98 million barrels (with expectations of +1.55 million barrels). In addition, crude oil inventories in Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose by 543 thousand barrels. At the same time, crude oil inventories of EIA members unexpectedly fell by 1.93 million barrels, although experts had expected them to increase by 500 thousand barrels.

 

The decline in global oil demand is confirmed by the steady increase in oil reserves on tankers. According to Vortexa, as of December 26, the volume of crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days increased by 15% in a week to 129.33 million barrels, although previously they averaged 70-90 million barrels.

 

Geopolitical and US sanctions pressure on Venezuela and the Russian Federation continue to increase discounts on their oil, which further puts pressure on world prices.

 

The bombings of sanctioned tankers of the Russian shadow fleet and the arrest of 3 sanctioned tankers with Venezuelan oil contribute to increasing discounts on sanctioned oil, which buyers from China and India take advantage of.

 

According to Reuters, between December 22 and 28, the price of Russian Urals oil fell to $33-34/barrel in the ports of the Baltic and Black Seas, which was the lowest level since the pandemic, as Russia provides significant discounts to buyers from India and China.

 

The oil market is awaiting the January decision of OPEC+ on production plans and possible increased US sanctions pressure on Russia, which does not want to stop the war.