Corn prices remain under pressure from improved crop forecasts for the US and Brazil

Data on corn stocks and plantings in the US are in line with analysts' forecasts, but corn quotes remain under pressure from favorable weather in the US and improved crop forecasts for Brazil.

 

According to USDA reports:

• - US corn stocks as of June 1 amounted to 117.96 million tons, which is 9 million tons lower than last year, but in line with the average estimates of analysts;
• -corn plantings in the US amounted to 95.2 million acres, which is 150 thousand acres below the average estimate of analysts and 123 thousand acres below the March forecast;
• -corn exports from the US for the period June 20-26 decreased by 9% to 1.37 million tons, and in total in the 2024/25 MY amounted to 54.94 million tons, which is 29.3% higher than last year's pace.

 

The number of US corn crops in good or excellent condition during June 23-29 increased by 3% to 73% (67% last year).

 

Weather forecasts promise rising temperatures and new precipitation across all corn growing areas in the US over the next 7-10 days, which will continue to improve crop conditions during the crop formation period.

 

July corn futures on the Chicago SWOT exchange were almost unchanged for the week, trading at $165.5/t (-4.2% month-on-month), but December futures fell 2% to $167.5/t (-2.5%).

 

In southern Brazil, reduced rainfall will allow for faster harvesting of the second corn crop, and local analysts continue to raise harvest forecasts, which are already 20-22 million tons higher than last year, putting pressure on prices.

 

The European Commission has raised its forecast for EU corn production in the 2025/26 MY from 63.8 million tons to 64.6 million tons, which has increased pressure on quotes, although the heat expected next week may slightly worsen the condition of the crops.

 

August corn futures in Paris on Euronext fell by 2% to €195.25/t or $230.2/t (+0.8% month-on-month), and November futures fell by 4.3% to €198.75/t (unchanged month-on-month).

 

In 2024/25, the EU reduced corn exports by 40% compared to the same period last year to 2.3 million tons, but increased imports from 18.5 to 19.2 million tons (with a USDA forecast of 20 million tons).

 

Export demand prices for corn in Ukrainian ports remain at $220–225/t or UAH 10,400–10,600/t, as traders buy up small batches, and forward prices for new crop corn remain at $200/t.

 

Markets remain under pressure from increased supply of the old crop and favorable weather for the new crop, so weather factors will mainly affect prices in the coming month.