Corn quotes in Paris continue to fall, pushing down prices in Ukraine

After the suspension of exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, the main destination for corn supplies remains the EU, where corn prices have risen due to a sharp reduction in the harvest. However, the decline in oil prices, as well as oilseeds and meal prices due to increased supplies from Ukraine, is increasing pressure on corn quotes.

 

March corn futures in Paris reached a 3-year high of €280/t three weeks ago, but have now fallen by 13% to €247.75/t or $279/t (+6.5% month-on-month) under pressure from accelerating corn harvests in the EU and increased supplies from Ukraine.

 

As of October 30, 10.776 million tons of corn were threshed in Ukraine from 1.715 million hectares or 37.5% of the area with an average yield of 6.28 tons/hectare, which continues to increase supply on the market.

 

Corn exports from Ukraine for 30 days of October amounted to only 262 thousand tons (compared to 300 thousand tons in September 2026 and 807 thousand tons in October 2025), and in total since the beginning of the season reached 2.189 million tons (1.72 million tons for the same period last year) due to active shipments in July and August.

 

Railcar downtime caused by transshipment delays at the western border is increasing logistics costs, forcing exporters to lower prices. Road deliveries of corn to EU buyers have become unprofitable due to the increase in delivery costs to $150-170/t.

 

During the week, corn purchase prices in Ukraine remained at the level of 4,000–4,800 UAH/t on FCA - farm terms, and deliveries were made mainly to Danube ports at a price of 7,000–7,200 UAH/t or $150–158/t or to western terminals at a price of 7,000–7,500 UAH/t or $160–165/t, but there was demand for deliveries to Black Sea ports at a price of 6,000 UAH/t or $110–120/t, which added optimism to farmers about the possible resumption of their work in the near future.

 

Favorable weather conditions for corn planting in Brazil and Argentina continue to put pressure on prices. In Argentina, 37% of the area has already been sown with corn (36% last year), and in Brazil - 63% (59% last year).

 

According to NASS USDA, as of November 1, corn has been harvested in 74% of the area in the US (+14% per week), which is 3% below the 5-year average (77%).

 

Corn exports from the US in the 2026/27 MY amounted to 10.77 million tons, which is 13.2% lower than last year's pace and also puts pressure on quotes.

 

December corn futures in Chicago fell another 1.6% to $175/t in the week, losing 11.7% in the month, and are already trading 5.2% lower than last year.

 

Additionally, the quotation is being pressured by a 31% decrease (compared to the previous season) in the volume of purchases from Mexico, the main importer of corn from the United States.