Corn quotes in Chicago have fallen below last year's level, increasing pressure on corn prices in the EU and Ukraine

Accelerating corn harvest in the USA and Ukraine, as well as favorable weather conditions for corn sowing in Brazil and Argentina, continue to lower corn quotes in Chicago and Paris, and the depreciation of the Brazilian real, Ukrainian hryvnia, and euro against the dollar further contributes to increasing supplies to the EU, where high prices for corn have been established, which are attractive to exporters.

According to NASS USDA, as of October 25, corn in the US has been harvested on 60% of the area (+16% per week), which is 6% lower than the 5-year average (66%). Rainy weather is forecast in the US “corn belt” for the next 7-10 days, which will reduce the pace of harvesting.

December corn futures in Chicago fell another 2.5% to $178/t in the week, losing 15% in the month, and are already trading 2.4% lower than last year.

As of October 25, 58% of the planned area (55% last year) of the first (summer) crop of corn in Brazil has been sown, and the forecasted rainfall is accelerating the sowing. This contributes to the activation of exports of the old crop. According to the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), corn exports from Brazil in October will increase by 17% compared to September to 6.1 million tons, which will be 6.16% lower than the corresponding figure last year.

The representative of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in Argentina has increased the country's corn production forecast for the 2026/27 MY to 62 million tons, significantly exceeding the current official forecast of 55 million tons due to favorable planting conditions and increased acreage.

The decline in Chicago quotes increased the pressure on quotes in the EU. During the week, March corn futures in Paris fell by 1.4% to €264.75/t or $295/t (+0.6% month-on-month), but dollar prices for November deliveries reached $320-325/t due to the high exchange rate and speculative growth before the close.

According to the European Commission's operational data, from July 1 to October 25, 2026, the EU increased corn imports by 35.7% compared to the previous season, from 5.24 to 7.11 million tons, which is 3.9% higher than the corresponding figure for the 2024/25 MY (6.84 million tons). At the same time, the main supplier of corn during this period was the USA, whose supplies increased 2.7 times compared to last year, from 1.17 million tons (22.34% of total imports) to 3.19 million tons (44.78%), and Ukraine, which almost doubled its supplies from 835.24 thousand tons (15.94%) to 1.66 million tons (23.40%), while supplies from Brazil decreased by 32.5% from 2.89 million tons (55.19%) to 1.95 million tons (27.43%).

Delays in corn supplies from Ukraine due to complex logistics are forcing European importers to more actively purchase affordable and cheap corn from Brazil and the USA, which is increasing pressure on domestic purchase prices in Ukraine.

Corn exports from Ukraine for 26 days of October amounted to only 208 thousand tons (compared to 807 thousand tons in October 2025), and in total since the beginning of the season reached 2.135 million tons (1.72 million tons for the same period last year) due to active shipments in July and August.

As of October 26, 7.89 million tons of corn were threshed in Ukraine from 1.325 million hectares or 29% of the area with an average yield of 5.95 tons/hectare, which increases supply on the market.

During the week, corn purchase prices in Ukraine decreased to 4,000–5,000 UAH/t on FCA - farm terms, and deliveries were made mainly to Danube ports at a price of 7,000–7,200 UAH/t or $150–158/t, or to western terminals at a price of 7,000–7,500 UAH/t or $160–165/t.

Prolonged rainfall in Ukraine is delaying the corn harvest, which is currently limiting supply, but huge traffic jams of cars and trucks on the western border are preventing demand from increasing.