Quotations for corn are actively recovering after a long fall

After a long decline in the price of corn at the end of last week, the rise resumed, which continued on Monday against the background of a 4.9% increase in the price of oil.

The main reason for the decline in prices for agricultural products was speculative sales caused by traders' efforts to switch to more reliable assets against the background of a possible banking crisis. However, statements by central banks to support regional banks eased traders' concerns and they resumed purchases, which contributed to the growth of quotations.

Prices on Euronext rose the most. Yes, May corn futures rose by 4.5% on Friday, and by another 2.8% yesterday to €260.75/t or $282/t (+2.3% for the week, - 6.3% per month).

Chicago May corn futures rose 0.8% yesterday to $255.2/t (+2.5% for two days, +2.8% for the month).

Prices for American corn were supported by the news about China's purchase of 2.5 million tons of corn from the United States and analysts' forecasts of a decrease in sowing areas.

According to a March 4-14 email survey of 800 growers by Farm Futures magazine, U.S. corn plantings will reach 87.7 million acres in 2023 (88.6 million acres in 2022), while Prospective Plantings estimates 87.7- 92.1 million acres, and an average of 90.9 million acres. And the Outlook Forum in February predicted the corn planting area at the level of 91 million acres. A decline in acreage in the new USDA report will provide strong support to quotes in Chicago.

Low export rates add pessimism to traders. For March 17-23, the export of corn from the USA decreased by half compared to the previous week, to 666.3 thousand tons, and in general in the season it reached 18.194 million tons (29.045 million tons on this date last year).

Analysts believe that in the Grain Stocks report published by the USDA on March 31, corn stocks will decrease to 188 million tons compared to 195.5 million tons last year.

In Ukraine, traders are gradually resuming the purchase of corn, as a result of which prices have risen to UAH 7,700-7,900/t or $195-200/t with delivery to the port or UAH 6,500-7,100/t with delivery to processors at the factory.

Farmers who did not sell corn at the price of $205-210/t continue to hold back sales in anticipation of a spring price increase amid a reduced harvest in Argentina. In addition, the weather in April and May in Brazil can also affect global prices.