China plans to drastically reduce corn consumption by increasing the use of soybean meal

China plans to significantly reduce the use of corn in feed, replacing it with alternative ingredients, in particular soybean meal, amid a sharp increase in soybean imports over the past two seasons.

In the October report "China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (CASDE), the forecast for corn feed consumption in the 2026/27 MY was reduced compared to the September estimates by 9.1 million tons from 209.6 to 200.5 million tons, and in the current 2025/26 MY - by 9.4 million tons to 201.5 million tons. The reason for this will be the replacement of corn in feed with other components.

At the same time, demand for corn from the processing industry is growing, so for the 2025/26 MY, the consumption forecast has been increased by 4 million tons to 85 million tons, and for the 2026/27 MY - by 4.3 million tons to 85. million tons due to the resumption of starch enterprises. However, this will not be able to compensate for the reduction in demand from feed producers, so the forecast for total corn consumption in the country in the 2026/27 MY has been reduced by 4.8 million tons from 311.65 to 306.85 million tons.

At the same time, the forecast for corn production and imports in the 2026/27 MY remained unchanged at 306 million tons and 6 million tons, respectively. As a result, the estimate of stocks was increased from 340 thousand tons to 5.14 million tons.

Weather conditions in China have contributed to a good harvest, and an increase in the supply of new grain is increasing pressure on prices. At the same time, they are supported by high demand from feed producers and processors, as well as active purchases for state reserves and rising world prices.

For countries exporting corn, including Ukraine, the adjustment of consumption forecasts in China will be an important signal, although import estimates remain unchanged for now.