China releases vegetable oil production and consumption forecasts for 2026/27 MY

China's Agricultural Forecasting Committee (CAOC) left its vegetable oil production and consumption forecasts unchanged in its July CASDE report. Experts expect vegetable oil production to be 31.41 million tons (including soybean oil at 17.17 million tons and rapeseed oil at 7.77 million tons), and consumption to be 37.89 million tons.

CAOC considers the internal market balance to be stable due to significant reserves and forecasts of a significant global supply of oilseeds in the new season.

The new rapeseed harvest season in China is ending rather calmly, with prices generally in line with previous years' levels, although a premium is being offered for higher quality rapeseed.

On the global market, analysts' attention is focused on Canada, which is completing its canola planting. An increase in planted area to a 10-year high is raising production and supply forecasts, which is putting pressure on quotes.

CAOC believes that the 2026/27 MY will be favorable for oilseed importers due to good harvests in producing countries, which will ensure the stability of the Chinese vegetable oil market.