China increases wheat imports from Australia and Argentina amid falling prices

In December, Australia and Argentina exported about 620,000 tons of wheat to China, and analysts expect continued supplies amid low global prices, The Edge Malaysia reports.

 

The volume of Australian wheat shipments to China in December was the largest since April 2024, and Argentine wheat shipments were the largest since 1997.

 

Traders were surprised by such an increase in purchases by the world's largest importer of agricultural products after two years of its own high harvests, when the need for imports decreased.

 

December deliveries failed to boost global wheat prices, but analysts believe that steady demand from China will support the market in the coming months.

 

In December, Australia shipped at least 460,000 tons of wheat to China, and Argentina shipped about 160,000 tons. Shipping data does not include all cargoes, so the actual volume of shipments may be higher.

 

Australia and Argentina are currently finishing up fairly good harvests. Australian wheat prices are lower than barley, which is in demand in China for feed production. Argentine wheat prices are even lower, so it has good export potential.

 

Meanwhile, shipping data from Australia and Argentina shows only one ship scheduled to carry wheat from Argentina to China in January, although several more ships in each country are awaiting shipments with final destinations yet to be determined, suggesting some slowdown in exports.

 

According to Chinese customs, from 2020 to June 2024, China imported an average of 1 million tons of wheat per month, significantly exceeding purchases by other importers. But since then, shipments have decreased to 300,000 tons per month. From December 2024 to February 2025, Argentina did not supply wheat to China, and Australia shipped 240,000 tons.

 

China now needs to import because its record corn crop has high levels of toxicity, so it must be mixed with clean grain to be fed to animals. According to traders, Australia and Argentina should supply China with 1-2 million tons in December-January and up to 5-6 million tons by mid-year.

 

Recall that according to the USDA forecast, China will increase wheat imports in the 2025/26 MY compared to the previous season from 4.2 to 6 million tons, while the harvest volume will remain at 140 million tons.