Kazakhstan and Russia continue to push Ukraine out of the Chinese sunflower oil market

Kazakhstan continues to increase supplies of sunflower oil to China, said Fang Gang, director of the Chinese company ZHEJIANG GRAIN GROUP Co., during the KazOil-2025 international conference in Astana.

Currently, the main suppliers of sunflower oil to China are the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Ukraine, amid the war and logistical problems, is gradually reducing supplies, while the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, on the contrary, are increasing export volumes.

In 2022, China purchased 53% of sunflower oil from Ukraine, 36% from the Russian Federation, and 6% from Kazakhstan. In 2024, the situation changed, and 65% of oil was purchased from the Russian Federation, 23% from Ukraine, and 11% from Kazakhstan.

In total, in 2024, China imported 1.08 million tons of sunflower oil, which is inferior to 1.5 million tons in 2023, but significantly exceeds the figure for 2022 (605 thousand tons).

Experts called one of the key factors in increasing oil supplies from Kazakhstan the possibility of placing products in warehouses in Alashankou, which will help resolve logistical issues and ensure price stability.

For the first 5 months of the 2024/25 MY season (as of February 1), Ukraine exported 2.09 million tons of sunflower oil (366 thousand tons in September, 484 thousand tons in October, 481 thousand tons in November, 380 thousand tons in December and 378 thousand tons in January), which is 42% of the USDA forecast of 5 million tons.

In the 2023/24 MY, Ukraine produced 6.6 million tons of sunflower oil, of which it exported 6.2 million tons (in the 2022/23 MY, exports amounted to 5.622 million tons). This was the second highest figure after the record 2019/2020 MY, when production reached 6.9 million tons and exports - 6.7 million tons.

According to Rusagro, in 2024/25 MY, sunflower oil exports from the Russian Federation may reach a record 5.5 million tons (5.25 million tons in 2023/24 MY and 4.27 million tons in 2022/23 MY), while ending stocks will also grow to a 7-year maximum of 704 thousand tons.

The significant volume of offers of cheap Russian oil on the world market continues to restrain the growth of prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil.