Canada to increase canola area and reduce legumes in 2026/27 MY

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecasts that Canadian farmers will increase canola acreage and reduce pulses and niche crops in 2026/27. At the same time, overall production of most crops in Western Canada could decline as yields return to multi-year averages, while corn and soybeans will show increases.

 

The agency notes that key factors influencing crop structure will remain crop rotations, moisture availability, price expectations and input costs. Increased uncertainty in international trade will also have an additional impact, forcing farmers to be more cautious in their production planning.

 

It is expected that compared to the previous season, the area sown with wheat will decrease by 0.3% to 10.94 million hectares, in particular durum wheat - to 2.46 million hectares, while soft wheat will increase to 8.48 million hectares. Under average yields, wheat production will decrease by 12.5% to 35.0 million tons, and ending stocks will decrease to 5.7 million tons.

 

Canola area, on the other hand, will increase by 1.9% to 8.92 million hectares. However, production will be 19.2 million tonnes (compared to a record 21.8 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY) due to lower yields. Canola exports are expected to be 7.5 million tonnes in 2026/27 MY, with carryover stocks at 1.65 million tonnes.

 

Barley sowings will increase by 6.1% to 2.64 million hectares, but production will decrease to 8.45 million tons. Oat areas will increase by 1.8% to 1.24 million hectares, but gross harvest will decrease by 9.4% to 3.55 million tons. In contrast, pea sowings will decrease by 15.5% and lentil sowings by 9.7%, which will lead to a decrease in their production to 2.85 million tons and 2.25 million tons, respectively.

 

Eastern Canada is expected to see improved soybean and corn yields after a dry 2025/26 season. Soybean area will increase by 2.6% to 2.40 million hectares and production will increase to 7.6 million tonnes. Corn plantings will decrease by 0.7% to 1.52 million hectares, but the yield will reach 15.2 million tonnes.