Canada has released a price forecast for major agricultural crops

Agriculture and Agri-business Canada (AAFC) released its forecast for FY 2024/25 (which began on August 1), in which it indicated not only harvest volumes, but also expected prices.

The 2023/24 season in Canada was not very good, as the heat significantly reduced production, which, against the background of increasing domestic consumption, led to a decrease in exports and stocks. In the new season, the summer rains have contributed to the development of crops, so the harvest will be better and prices for agricultural crops will be lower than last year.

• According to Statistics Canada, the wheat sowing area will decrease by 3% compared to the previous season to 8.3 million hectares, in particular under the red-grained spring CWRS wheat (the most common type of wheat in the country) - to 6.5 million hectares. Currently, the area to be harvested is estimated at 8.1 million hectares. 90% of spring wheat crops in Saskatchewan and 79% in Alberta are in good or excellent condition. According to the forecast, the average yield of wheat will be 3.6 t/ha, the total harvest will be 29.1 million tons (with the USDA forecast of 32 million tons), domestic consumption will grow by 2% to 8.6 million tons, and transitional stocks will reach 31, 6 million tons. The average producer price for CWRS wheat may be 330 CAD/t or $238/t, but it will depend on the harvest in the northern hemisphere, in particular in the Russian Federation, the quality of soft wheat in France and import demand from India and China.
• Canola sowing area is estimated at 8.9 million ha, yield at 2.12 t/ha, total harvest at 18.6 million t, domestic processing at 11 million t, and export at 7 million t, but it will depend on actual harvest. The average price could be 680 CAD/t or $490/t compared to 705 CAD/t or $508/t last year.
• Sunflower sowing areas will decrease by 41% compared to last year to 24,000 hectares due to the yield of this crop being lower than that of other oil crops. The average yield will be 2.22 t/ha, the harvest will be 51 thousand t, and the total supply, taking into account last year's reserves, will be 266 thousand t. The average price will be 630 CAD/t or $454/t compared to 535 CAD/t or $385 /t in 2023/24 MR.
• Compared to 2023, the area of flax sowing will decrease by 15% to 210 thousand hectares, the yield will be 1.3 t/ha, production will be 266 thousand tons, consumption will decrease to 91 thousand tons, and export will reach 250 thousand tons. The average price will be 605 CAD/t or $436/t, which will exceed last year's level but fall short of the 5-year average of CAD 710/t or $512/t.
• Soybean area will grow to 2.32 million hectares, total production to 7.1 million tons, domestic processing to 1.9 million tons, and exports to 5 million tons, which will be the second largest indicator after 5.64 million t season 2018/19. Stocks will grow to 0.52 million tons, and their ratio to consumption will be 5%. The average price will be $550/t compared to $580/t last year and $562/t on average over 5 years.