Iraq will harvest 5 million tons of wheat in 2026, and will not import it for the fourth year in a row

According to forecasts by the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture, in 2026 the country will harvest almost 5 million tons of wheat, which will allow it to abandon its imports for the fourth year in a row, Reuters reports.

The main condition for a good yield will be favorable weather conditions, since most of the harvest depends on the availability of rainwater and well water, rather than river irrigation.

According to estimates by the country's Ministry of Water Resources, strategic water reserves have increased by almost 6 billion cubic meters this year, as increased precipitation has raised water levels in reservoirs after several consecutive years of drought.

Despite favorable harvest forecasts, the country's authorities have reduced the price at which they buy wheat from farmers by 150,000 dinars/tonne compared to last year, to 700,000 dinars/tonne or $535/tonne. In May, the country's government decided to reduce the purchase price of subsidized wheat, as the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduced oil revenues, leading to an economic crisis in the country.

However, this decision has outraged farmers, who believe that this price does not cover the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds, which are constantly rising in price.

The country's authorities say that even the reduced price still exceeds the world price. For a long time, wheat was purchased from farmers at prices that exceeded the world price in order to stimulate production in the arid climate.

Iraq has been trying to increase wheat production for several years to reduce the need for imports and ensure food security.

According to the US WHS forecasts, in the 2026/27 MY, Iraq will harvest 5.8 million tons of wheat, which will be inferior to the record 6 million tons of the 2024/25 season, but will exceed the low harvest of the 2025/26 MY (4.4 million tons).