India has increased its wheat export quota from 2.5 to 5 million tons, which will increase pressure on markets

The Indian government has increased the wheat export quota by 2.5 million tons to 5 million tons, but left the wheat harrow export quota at 1 million tons, Reuters reports.

Increasing the quota will avoid the accumulation of excessive stocks and sales of wheat at low prices during the height of the season, which will increase farmers' profits.

In February, the country's government agreed to a wheat export quota of 2.5 million tons, lifting a four-year export ban.

India's harvest will end in May, and this year's wheat crop could reach a record 120.2 million tonnes compared to 118 million tonnes in 2025.

Increased wheat supplies from India will reduce the already weak demand for Black Sea wheat and increase pressure on prices.

The main buyer of Indian wheat is traditionally Bangladesh. Due to the shared border and low logistics costs, the country buys 6.7-7.2 million tons of wheat from India every year. Other buyers are Nepal and Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam), but there Indian wheat competes with Australian, American and Black Sea wheat. In April 2026, state reserves in India reached 22-23 million tons, which significantly exceeds the required buffer (7.46 million tons), which forced the government to lift the export ban.

However, Indian wheat is currently more expensive than Ukrainian or Russian wheat, which may limit demand for it from countries where price is a decisive factor.