India may increase palm oil imports and reduce soybean and sunflower oil supplies in 2025/26 MY

According to analysts' forecasts, in the 2025/26 MY, India will increase food imports by 4.6% compared to the previous season to a record 17.1 million tons, primarily palm oil, which will reduce stocks in the world's largest palm oil producers - Indonesia and Malaysia, and will also support palm oil futures on the Malaysian stock exchange.

Palm oil imports are expected to grow by 13.4% to 9.3 million tonnes, while soybean oil imports will decline to 5 million tonnes and sunflower oil to 2.7 million tonnes (compared to 3 million tonnes in 2024/25 MY).

Recall that India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and soybean and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.

Global palm oil production growth is slowing, and in 2025/26 MY growth is expected to be only around 1 million tonnes, even despite increasing demand for food and biofuels.

After the peak production period ends in October, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 5,000 ringgit/t ($1,185/t) in November-December, and reach a three-year high of 5,500 ringgit/t in January-March 2026 due to supply cuts caused by rising biodiesel consumption in Indonesia.