India will reduce wheat production in 2024, but harvest a record rapeseed crop

According to the Reuters agency, in 2024 India can harvest a record crop of canola thanks to an increase in the area sown and favorable weather in the main producer states, which will allow to reduce imports of expensive soybean, sunflower and palm oil.

Compared to the previous season, the area planted with rapeseed grew by 5% to 10 million hectares, so its harvest may increase from 11.5 to 11.8-12 million tons, especially since crops are currently in good condition in almost all states.

According to the estimates of market participants, wheat production in the country in 2023/24 MR may amount to 107-108 million tons, which will be inferior to last year's indicator and the official forecast of MSG India of 114 million tons. The wheat sowing area will remain at the level of the previous year, but its yield will decrease due to precipitation deficit.

Traders expect a shortage of wheat supply in the domestic market as the government has exhausted reserve stocks and will actively seek to restore them. According to the Food Corporation of India, wheat stocks in the country as of December 31 fell to a seven-year low of 16.35 million tonnes, although a year earlier they had reached 17.17 million tonnes.

Wheat prices on spot markets in India fell to 26 thousand rupees or $313.21/t as of February 16, which is 16% lower than last year's level.