India agreed to halt oil imports from Russia and seized three tankers, which will increase pressure on oil prices in the near term

Last week, in talks with the US, India agreed to stop direct and indirect imports of Russian oil, purchase $500 billion worth of US goods, eliminate some trade tariffs on US products, including agricultural, industrial, chemical and medical products, increase energy purchases from the US and expand defence cooperation between the countries for the next ten years. In return, the US has promised to reduce the reciprocal tariff for India to 18%.

On Saturday, the Indian Coast Guard detained three sanctioned tankers - All Jafzia (Nicaragua flag), Asphalt Star (Mali) and Stellar Ruby (Iran) - for international smuggling, which were used to transship oil on the high seas.

Such steps will reduce global demand for oil, in particular Russian oil, which rose by 6.2% to $54.6/barrel in a month.

In December, Russian crude oil supplies to India fell to a 3-year low of 1.2 million barrels per day.

US-Iran talks in Oman on Friday failed to produce any significant results, sending April Brent crude futures up 0.7% to $68/barrel (-2% for the week, +8.3% for the month). According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran refuses to stop enriching uranium, which is a key issue for the US.

Markets fear that Trump will launch a military operation in Iran, which would block not only Iranian oil supplies of 3.3 million barrels/day, but also the transportation of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass.

The week before last, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East led to a 10% increase in oil prices.

According to Vortexa, the volume of crude oil on tankers idle for at least 7 days decreased by 6.2% to 103 million barrels in the week of January 24-30, which is still 10-20% higher than last year's average level.

Warming in the US and Europe in February has already sharply reduced gas prices, which will increase pressure on oil prices and, accordingly, on agricultural products from which biofuels are made.